#60 - Phil Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

<p>Have you ever been infuriated by a doctor's unwillingness to give you an honest, probabilistic estimate about what to expect? Or a lawyer who won't tell you the chances you'll win your case?</p><p> Their behaviour is so frustrating because accurately predicting the future is central to every action we take. If we can't assess the likelihood of different outcomes we're in a complete bind, whether the decision concerns war and peace, work and study, or Black Mirror and RuPaul's Drag Race.</p><p> Which is why the research of Professor Philip Tetlock is relevant for all of us...