#15 - Phil Tetlock on how chimps beat Berkeley undergrads and when it’s wise to defer to the wise

<p>Prof Philip Tetlock is a social science legend. Over forty years he has researched whose predictions we can trust, whose we can’t and why - and developed methods that allow all of us to be better at predicting the future.</p><p> After the Iraq WMDs fiasco, the US intelligence services hired him to figure out how to ensure they’d never screw up that badly again. The result of that work – Superforecasting – was a media sensation in 2015.</p><p> Full transcript, brief summary, apply for coaching and links to learn more.</p><p> It described Tetlock’s Good Judgem...